DC releases ten major forecasts of China's PC market in 2018
Beijing, January 8, 2018 - 2017, China's PC market is like a roller coaster. It experienced 10.6% decline in the second quarter of 2017 compared with the same period in the second quarter of 2017. It also experienced the fourth quarter of 2017. It is expected to become the first 20 PC growth in China in the past 20 quarters. IDC China's "PC market monthly tracking report" preliminary data show that in 2017, China's PC market sales of about 53 million 600 thousand units, a year-on-year decline of 4.1%. China's PC market seems to be in an uncertain situation in 2017, as the global PC market has gradually rebounded. Wang Jiping, assistant vice president of IDC China, predicted that in 2018, the sales volume of China's PC market was about 52 million 100 thousand, and the annual decline of the year was 2.2%. The overall PC market is recovering in a good direction, but there are still a series of unstable factors.
Looking forward to the future development trend, IDC summed up the ten major forecasts of China's PC market in 2018.
The 1. game is still one of the most important growth exciting points in the consumer market
2018年，游戏笔记本预计销售470万台。游戏台式机将拉动高端消费PC市场持续增长。以《绝地求生》为代表的吃鸡游戏风靡，进一步点燃消费者对于游戏PC的需求，加之消费PC用户日趋年轻化， 使得游戏成为驱动PC市场增长的重要因素。 这其中，超轻薄游戏笔记本与6000元以上的游戏台式机将成为2018年的主要亮点。
In 2018, the game notebook is expected to sell 4 million 700 thousand. The game desktop will increase the growth of the high-end consumer PC market. The chicken eating game represented by Jedi survival is popular. It further ignites the demand of consumers for game PC, and the consumption of PC users is becoming younger. So the game has become an important factor to drive the growth of PC market. In this, the super light game notebook and more than 6000 yuan of the game desktop will become the main highlight of the 2018.
2. different types of customers differ significantly on screen size requirements
消费笔记本持续向15寸产品转移，商用笔记本则聚焦14寸笔记本，21寸依然是一体机市场最重要的屏幕尺寸。2018年超轻薄笔记本将从以13寸为主，逐渐向14寸及15寸过渡。由于游戏笔记本原本90%以上集中在15寸产品，预计消费笔记本市场会继续向15寸市场倾斜。而商用笔记本则依然受到消费习惯影响，聚焦于14寸产品。 一体机由于商用客户比例逐步提升， 23寸以上的大屏幕比例将有所减少，反而会聚焦于21寸产品。
The consumer notebook continues to transfer to 15 inch products, and the commercial notebook focuses on the 14 inch notebook, and the 21 inch is still the most important screen size of the integrated machine market. In 2018, the super thin notebook will be 13 inch, gradually to 14 inch and 15 inch transition. Because more than 90% of the original game notebook is concentrated in 15 inch products, it is expected that the consumer notebook market will continue to tilt to the 15 inch market. And commercial notebooks are still affected by the consumption habits, focusing on 14 inch products. As a result of the gradual increase in the proportion of commercial customers, the proportion of large screens over 23 inches and above will be reduced, instead, it will focus on 21 inch products.
3. super light and high performance notebook become the killer of 2018, especially the popular high performance notebook will be the new bright spot in the market
IDC认为，亚太消费者对于产品的轻薄诉求尤为明显，2018年，随着工艺的提升，笔记本将会更为轻薄。 在追求轻薄的同时，消费者对于高性能的需求也日益提高。 超轻薄高性能笔记本将成为消费者的一个更合理的选择。
IDC believes that the light demand for products is particularly evident in Asia Pacific consumers. In 2018, with the improvement of the process, the notebook will be thinner. In the pursuit of light, consumer demand for high performance is also increasing. Super lightweight and high performance notebook will become a more reasonable choice for consumers.
The 4. retail PC market is expected to break through 50% in the fourth quarter of 2018 and the competition of the e-commerce platform is hot.
2017年，中国零售PC市场约有43%的PC是通过电商销售到达最终用户手中， 整体电商市场年度同比增长约23%。 IDC认为，由于传统的IT卖场获客面临挑战，消费者选择线下渠道进行购买行为的动力不足，2018年电商成长趋势将会继续保持。预计2018年第四季度电商销量在整体零售占比将达到50%以上。 同时，天猫、苏宁等电商平台也会进一步发力，挑战京东在PC电商平台的霸主地位。
In 2017, about 43% of the PC market in China's retail PC market came to end users through e-commerce sales, and the overall e-commerce market increased by about 23% year on year. IDC believes that due to the challenges faced by the traditional IT stores, consumers will not have enough motivation to choose online channels to purchase. In 2018, the growth trend of e-commerce will continue. It is expected that in the fourth quarter of 2018, the total retail sales ratio will reach more than 50% in the overall retail sales. At the same time, Tmall, Suning and other e-commerce platforms will be further forced to challenge the Jingdong's hegemonic position in the PC e-commerce platform.
5. the development of the regional market is increasingly balanced, and the growth of the 1-6 level market is becoming more and more synchro
随着PC普及率的稳定， 4-6级PC市场高速成长的阶段正在成为过去。 1-6级市场将共同进入增速稳定阶段，各个级别城市增速差异将不再明显。 若分省份来看，中西部省份依旧成长相对更快。
With the stability of PC popularity, the high growth stage of the 4-6 level PC market is becoming the past. The 1-6 level market will jointly enter the stable stage of growth, and the growth difference in each level will no longer be obvious. In the provinces, the Midwest is still growing faster.
6. Win10 driven commercial PC market over a small climax
虽然Windows 10 推出已经3年， 但仍有可观数量的客户停留于老的PC平台。随着Intel Kaby Lake Platform 不支持Windows 7平台， 微软停止了Windows 7在华销售以及服务支持，商用PC客户在中国不得不面临PC更新问题。而随着中国政府宣布Windows10 政府版本的发行，政府和大型企业正迎来一次Windows 10的换机潮。
Although Windows 10 has been launched for 3 years, a considerable number of customers remain on the old PC platform. As Intel Kaby Lake Platform does not support Windows 7 platform, Microsoft stops Windows 7's sales and service support in China, and commercial PC customers have to face PC update problem in China. With the China government announced the Windows10 version of the issue of government, government and large enterprises are to usher in a 10 wave of replacement Windows.
7. PC new positioning: from product, industry division to scene division
智能手机正成为中国乃至全球消费者的第一智能终端， PC已经难以成为一个多场景的通用终端。同时，随着数字化转型的推进，社交、大数据、云技术、移动广泛应用于各个行业。终端类的产品已经从上个世纪90年代的产品划分，到本世纪初的行业划分，转变到今天的场景划分为主。 客户需要为某个场景专门定制的PC， 如教育电脑、游戏电脑、 设计师电脑、财务电脑、 网吧电脑等等。 同时，针对专门场景所配套的内容、外设、产品设计和服务成为“场景PC”成功的关键因素。
Smart phones are becoming the first smart terminal of consumers in China and in the world, and PC has been difficult to become a multi scene universal terminal. At the same time, with the advancement of digital transformation, social, large data, cloud technology and mobile are widely used in various industries. The product of the terminal class has been divided from the product of the last century in 90s to the division of the industry at the beginning of this century, and to the division of the scene today. Customers need to customize PC for a particular scene, such as educational computers, game computers, designer computers, financial computers, Internet cafes, and so on. At the same time, the content, peripherals, product design and service for special scenes are the key factors for the success of "scene PC".
8. 时尚PC商用化， 一体机、超轻薄笔记本商用比例提高
8. fashion PC commercial, organic, ultra-thin notebook commercial ratio increase
从2015年开始，变形本，超轻薄等产品推动了PC时尚化。 2018年开始，更多的商用客户也将融入时尚大潮。IDC认为，随着企业PC的购买决策权趋于个人化，新兴的初创企业，数字化转型原生代企业的增多， 更多的企业将更青睐购买一体机、超轻薄笔记本等时尚型电脑。
Since 2015, PC fashion has been promoted by products such as deformable, ultra thin, and so on. Since 2018, more commercial customers will also be integrated into the fashion tide. IDC believes that with the increase of PC's purchase decision making power to personalization, more and more start-ups and digitalized transformation of the original generation enterprises will be more interested in buying fashionable computers such as integrated machines and ultra thin notebooks.
9. small and medium-sized brand growth slowed down, in 2018 Top5 manufacturers faced fierce competition
IDC认为，随着PC市场的成长性减退，中小品牌在市场中的压力与日俱增。尤其是在商用市场， 中小品牌份额正在严重下滑。而在消费市场中，消费升级使得一批厂商转型升级，在过去几年有所建树，但随着前五名厂商在细分市场的策略逐步到位，2018年中小品牌增速将继续放缓， 而Top5厂商也将面临一场更加残酷的竞争。
IDC believes that, with the growth of the PC market, the pressure of small and medium-sized brands in the market is increasing. Especially in the commercial market, the share of small and medium-sized brands is falling seriously. But in the consumer market, the upgrading of consumption makes a number of manufacturers to upgrade, have been successful in the past few years, but with the top five vendors in the market segments of the strategy to gradually put in place, in 2018 the small brand growth will continue to slow, while the Top5 manufacturers will also face a more brutal competition.
10. 2018年平均单价终止增长， 整体PC平均单价下滑0.4%
The average unit price ended in 10.2018 years, with the overall PC average unit price falling by 0.4%
2017年中国PC市场平均单价提升明显。 截止2017年三季度，中国PC市场平均单价同比增长21.6% ，创造过去5年增长之最。其主要受到三个因素影响：第一、配件价格上涨，带动PC厂商纷纷上涨价格；第二、超轻薄，游戏本等产品占比提升，带动产品平均单价上涨；第三、商用及消费客户对更优性能产品的需求提升，带动高端价格产品市场上升。 IDC认为，受智能手机销量不如预期影响，上游正逐步减产智能手机，PC配件价格有望降低， 加之2018年厂商之间价格战竞争将更加激烈。2018年平均单价上涨趋势有望逐步缓解，整体PC平均单价将下滑0.4%。
In 2017, the average price of China's PC market has been improved significantly. By the three quarter of 2017, the average unit price of China's PC market increased by 21.6% year-on-year, creating the highest growth in the past 5 years. It is mainly affected by three factors: first, parts prices, leading PC manufacturers have rising prices; second, ultra light, etc. the game products accounted for improvement, the average price rose third, products; commercial and consumer customers to better performance of the product demand, high-end product market driven by rising price. IDC believes that smartphone sales are not as good as expected. Upstream is gradually reducing production of smart phones, PC accessories prices are expected to decrease, and competition between manufacturers will become more intense in 2018. The average price increase trend in 2018 is expected to gradually ease, the overall PC average unit price will decline by 0.4%.